Experts are predicting that there will be 1.2 million people in England and Wales living with dementia by 2040 – a rise of 57% from 2016 – due to increased life expectancy.
A study published in The BMJ says that although the number of newly diagnosed cases of dementia is falling, the overall prevalence will increase substantially as people live longer and deaths from other causes, such as heart disease, continue to decline.
The team of researchers based at University College London (UCL) and the University of Liverpool, set out to predict the future burden of dementia with more certainty by developing a mathematical model that takes account of disease trends and death rates alongside the effects of increasing life expectancy. They calculated that there were currently 767,000 people living with dementia in England and Wales and the number would increase to more than 1.2 million by 2040.
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Full reference: Ahmadi-Abhari, S et al. Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study BMJ Published 05 July 2017